The myth of the oil crisis
There are things that most people know today about oil.
- Global oil production will fall
- Prices will keep rising
- The transition to alternative energy sources will be long and painful
- It is more "oil wars" and industrial civilization may collapse
- Oil and gas will cause catastrophic climate change
The problem is that these ideas are wrong. Oil "was the first time in 1885, and perhaps five times since then. Each time, new discoveries, new technologies and changes use in oil confounded the pessimists.
Oil price above $ 140 per barrel seem to be the growing conviction that we are nearing support "to Peak Oil and that can not raise the bid any more. But what has changed since 1998 when oil costs $ 10 per barrel? That is a long term of under-investment in new energy supply with the rapid growth in Asia in conflict (and easy to forget in the U.S.). It takes years to turn the energy super-tanker around, to develop new oil fields, although abundant in the earth.
It is a genuine debate about how much oil the world holds. But the ideas of a large Conspiracy with some mixture of OPEC, the U.S. government and "Big Oil" to exaggerate oil reserves imagination. Official figures are, if anything, performed on a small scale, and, as the recent massive finds in deep water off the coast of Brazil shows, new borders of exploration are still there. Outdated Environment Moratorium could be lifted in the U.S., resulting to a stronger domestic hydrocarbons. New technologies continue to wring more out of the old fields. Most importantly, "unconventional" oil sources hold many times from the volume of conventional oil – oil from the famous Albertane "sand" on fuel Natural gas, coal and plants, to "cook" oil from shale, which hold trillions of barrels in the U.S. alone.
So there is no need to fight "Resource Wars" to "secure" oil. Penetration into the oil-rich countries is extremely expensive and makes oil less, not more secure. The Middle East is a growing part of the global economy, not a nest of terrorists who are desperate to cut off oil supplies to is bankrupt and invite revenge. Propping dictators in return for energy "favor" is not a valid long-term strategy. The West, China, India and the oil exporters are much more collaboration to win power, than by the illusion of "energy independence".
If "we" invest heavily in renewable energy To move the system? Well, we already are – from 100 billion U.S. dollars in 2006 alone, and not just in the West but in China, India, Brazil and other emerging powers. It is difficult to grow faster renewable energy. Renewable energy is certainly an important part of the drive of the future, and the fight against global warming, but Oil (and gas and coal) is the main source of energy for decades to come. The capture of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, and storing in the ground, is quite practical and should be a greater part of climate policy. Renewable energy and hydrocarbons are not enemies – we must use them both.
So the 'End of Oil "is not imminent – not the collapse of industrial civilization. Even when oil supplies begin to shrink, we were able to bridge the gap fill with improved efficiency and new energy sources. It is neither necessary nor desirable for us to cut back on some of the "Year Zero" of the pre-modern society. Oil will never "expires" it will be replaced, probably decades, so for something better. This is the best and most positive response to the concerns about the "end of oil".
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© 2008 Robin M. Mills
Author Bio
Robin M. Mills is an oil industry with a professional background in geology and economics. He is currently Senior Manager for Dubai Energy Review. Previously, he worked for Shell. Mills is a member of the International Association for Energy Economics and the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators. He has a master's degree in geology from the University of Cambridge. About the Author
His book, The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warning, is available August 2008 from Praeger Publishers.
http://www.praeger.com/catalog/B36498.aspx
ISBN: 0-313-36498-2
ISBN-13: 978-0-313-36498-3
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